Upper plate stressing and back arc seismicity in the subduction earthquake cycle

M A J Taylor, R. Dmowska and J. R. Rice

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 77, No. 46, F686, 1996.

 
We use 2D and 3D elastic models to investigate upper plate stressing during the earthquake cycle in a subduction segment, with or without strongly heterogeneous coupling along strike of the interplate interface. Oblique subduction segments are studied to understand how cycle-related stress changes induced by the main event promote or decrease the likelihood of strike-slip and/or normal events in back-arc regions.  The relevant quantity here is the change in Coulomb shear stress on active back-arc faults, equal to the sum of the change in shear stress plus the change in extensional stress multiplied by a coefficient of friction f.  We study three cases in which the back-arc regions are seismically active:  two from the Aleutians and one from Indonesia.

The Andreanof Islands earthquake of May 7, 1986 (Mw = 8.0) was followed in the first 1.5 months by a series of shallow upper-plate earthquakes, the five largest of which range in magnitude between Mw = 5.3 and Mw = 5.6 and are consistent with right-lateral motion on arc-parallel transform faults [Ekström and Engdahl, 1989].  The February 4, 1965 Rat Islands earthquake (Mw = 8.7) was followed on July 4, 1966 by a shallow mb = 6.2 upper-plate strike-slip event, which can be interpreted as a right-lateral earthquake in a relative position and time very similar to the Andreanof Islands earthquakes, here associated with slip on the eastern, strongest asperity of the 1965 main event.  Finally, the Biak (Indonesia) earthquake of Feb. 17, 1996 (Mw = 8.2) was followed by two upper-plate events, one left-lateral strike-slip (Mw = 6.5, Feb. 17) and the other extensional (Mw= 6.4, Feb. 18) relative to an arc-parallel back-arc transform feature suggested by the locations of mainly left-lateral upper-plate events from 1979 (probably triggered by a Sept. 12, 1979 earthquake nearby).

Subduction in the Aleutians is such that it principally produces coseismic increases in extensional and left-lateral shear stress on back-arc transforms.  For a net increase in right-lateral coulomb shear stress, consistent with the strike-slip events in the Andreanof and Rat Islands, the increase in extensional stress multiplied by f must be greater than the increase in left-lateral shear stress.  Positions in the back arc where this occurs depend strongly on distance perpendicular from the trench and the choice of f.  For a 2D model with homogeneous slip along strike during the main event (on an interplate interface of downdip width L) at an obliquity of 30 from the trench normal, increases in right lateral Coulomb shear stress in the back arc are achieved for distances > 1.2L from the trench with values of = 0.4.  For smaller obliquity as found for actual slip during the main events in the Andreanof and Rat Islands, any value of = 0.2 produces an increase in right-lateral Coulomb shear stress for distances > L.  A 2D model also predicts Coulomb stress increases both extensional and left-lateral consistent with the back arc activity in Indonesia.  However, if there is a significant slip heterogeneity during these events, as known to be the case for the Aleutians, then stress changes may be better estimated from a simple 3D model [Dmowska et al., 1996] of a localized asperity sustaining strong stress drop in the center of an interface rupture zone with free slip around it.  Such modeling for oblique subduction reveals that Coulomb stress changes favor back arc strike slip events only to one side of the asperity and extensional primarily to the other.  The modeling is consistent with locations of the strike-slip events in the Aleutians relative to the inferred asperities.  For Biak, it suggests that if there is a similar slip asperity on the interplate interface, then it must be located along strike between the 17 Feb. left-lateral strike-slip and 18 Feb. extensional back-arc events.
 



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